Mervyn Chua

2023 Digital Marketing Predictions

At this point, doing a 2023 prediction now seems to be cheating. I admit that predictions are hard and it probably took me longer than I should to assemble my views. While better late than never, hopefully this will spark conversation and hold us accountable for our predictions.

AI-Powered Digital Marketing

Let’s start with an easy and obvious one – something I have already wrote about previously. Whether we like it or not, the rise of AI in Digital Marketing is upon us.

2023 is probably the first year we see the start of real competition to Google’s Search dominance in the form of Microsoft’s new AI-powered Bing. However, this hype about AI has already transcended Search marketing, and many Ad Tech businesses are eager to incorporate AI into their products.

With AI providing efficiency, what this means for Digital Marketers is the need to go beyond building deep technical expertise and instead focus on soft skills like problem solving, strategic thinking and creativity.

Focus on Enhancing Customer Lifetime Value

From a macro economic standpoint, 2023 is set to continue the tailwinds of a turbulent 2022. Rising interest rates, inflation and a potential recession.

With such a gray backdrop, more companies will probably prefer to be conservative with their digital marketing budgets. As such, to obtain growth in revenue, companies will need to extract higher value per user.

Companies should therefore focus on product and monetisation to enhance their customers’ LTV. Improving LTV will also reduce the opportunity cost caused by the rising interest rates.

Apple to Extend its Digital Advertising Dominance

Since Apple released iOS 14.5, the importance of Apple Search Ads to Digital Marketers has grown drastically. This has clearly revealed Apple’s ambition in the digital advertising space.

Apple’s strengths lies predominantly in its ecosystem. With full visibility of its audiences within the iOS ecosystem, Apple is in the best position to provide personalised ads and measure its effectiveness.

All Apple needs now, is to build its own ad exchange and demand-side platform.

Privacy Forces Transition to Probablistic Tracking

Towards the end of 2023, Google is expected to finally release its Privacy Sandbox initiative where it will reduce cross-site and cross-app tracking. This is almost equivalent to Apple’s iOS 14.5.

So, Digital Marketers should prepare for a world without deterministic tracking such as device IDs or cookies. The broad solution to this is probabilistic tracking and it is likely that advertising platforms will resort to using this.

Tiktok to Finally Overtake Meta and Google

Let’s face it. Attention spans are dropping globally. (If you made it to this point, kudos to you!) We have been saying it for years that video as a medium is the next big thing. Specifically in 2023, short-form videos will takeover the world. To combat Tiktok, Meta and Google have both released their own versions in the form of Reels and Shorts respectively.

It is probably still a stretch that Tiktok may actually overtake the two behemoths in 2023. But with as the fastest-growing platform dominated by youths, it is clear that the future, for now, lies in Tiktok’s hands.

In all, 2023 will definitely be another interesting year for digital marketers.

What other futures do you see yourself in 2023?

Digital Marketers: 7 Skills to Have in 2023

Recently with a little more time on my hands, I was curious to find out what companies/recruiters are looking for in Digital Marketers. But going through the many job descriptions on LinkedIn, it seemed to be a mammoth of a task, an especially menial one.

So, I decided instead to use some simple text analytics to mine out the keywords used in these job descriptions. First, using “digital marketing” as a keyword on LinkedIn, I took 30 job descriptions as the raw data. After that, I used a text mining package on R to analyse it for keyword frequency and associations.

Here’s what I found out.

Taking together the keyword frequencies and associations, provided me with a list of skills I believe would be important for Digital Marketers to have now.

1. Teamwork and Team Management

While Digital Marketing may oftentimes be thought of as an individual contributor, this is hardly the case. To run an effective digital marketing campaign, multiple cross-functional teams need to work hand-in-hand.

I will say the critical teams here would be the Performance Marketing, Creative, Data and Product Teams. Effective digital campaigns require these four teams to work together to produce data-driven potent ads that are successful in driving users to convert in the product conversion funnel.

As such, a Digital Marketer in 2023 needs to be able to work well with cross-functional teams, and/or be able to manage such teams.

2. Media Campaigns

Needless to say as digital marketers, we need to have the right technical skills to run media campaigns. However, I will go a step further here to highlight two points – the breadth of media campaigns and hands-on experience.

As we move towards a world powered by artificial intelligence (AI), Digital Marketers need to be more than single ad platform specialists. Being able to understand and manage multiple campaigns across different ad platforms will be vital.

In addition, with a looming recession, companies may be forced to tighten their resources and thus more Digital Marketers will be expected to have hands-on experience in managing the campaigns.

3. Drive Customer Growth

A huge part of what Digital Marketers do is to drive user acquisition. However, it is important to note that growing the customer base does not stop at the top of the funnel. It goes way deeper than that.

Digital Marketers need to be able to bring in quality users who will end up as valuable customers. This means focusing on bringing in relevant users, and working closely with Data and Product teams to retain customers.

4. Business Strategy

With increased help from AI, Digital Marketers need to move beyond technical expertise and towards other skill sets such as strategic thinking, creativity and problem-solving.

At the end of the day, digital marketing needs to help the company achieve its business goals. The more strategic Digital Marketers are, the better position they will be in to formulate strategies and tactics to bring success to their company.

At this point, an astute reader might be saying “Hey Mervyn, there are only 4 skills here. What happened to the other 3?”. To that, my answer is that the remaining three are from a book I have read recently – Think Again by Adam Grant.

5. Think Like a Scientist

To level up as Digital Marketers, we need to develop the habit of thinking again. Instead of simply forming opinions based on experience, come up with hypotheses, test them with data and arrive at your conclusions.

When building up our skill set to be more strategic, we Digital Marketers should approach business strategies as experiments.

6. Abandon Best Practices

More often than not, we Digital Marketers resort or fall back to what we think are ‘best practices’. However, in doing so, we are preventing ourselves from further improving our current routines.

What we need to do is to focus not just on results but also on the process. A bad process with a good outcome is luck, and a good process with a bad outcome might be a smart experiment. We need to adopt process accountability and continually pursue better practices.

7. Make Time to Think Again

Last but not least, we need to make time to think again. The world of Digital Marketing and Technology is ever-changing, and thus it is imperative that we set aside time for us to rethink and learn.

Take the time to assess how much you are learning, or how much closer are you moving towards your goals. All this will help you decide on your next steps, your next experiment or your next campaign.

Ultimately, we are rapidly moving towards a world filled with artificial intelligence and automation. Digital Marketers of today need to evolve as well to ensure that we stay relevant and continue to contribute substantially to our companies.

Are you up for the change?

AI-Powered Search Engines: 3 Ways It Will Change Digital Marketing

I got to be honest. Writing this article, I had help from ChatGPT (an AI language model). While not to the extent of it (he, she or they?) writing the article for me, but good enough proof that the future of work is indeed changing.

First, a quick premier to set the context.

What is ChatGPT and why is it causing an AI browser war?

ChatGPT is an AI language model developed by OpenAI. Since its web interface version was released to the public in November 2022, it has taken the world by storm due to its capability to generate human-like text and its ability to perform a wide range of tasks such as answering questions, summarising text, and producing creative writing.

Most recently, Google fired the first salvo when they announced their own experimental AI chat service, Bard, which will be accessible in the upcoming weeks. A couple of days later, Microsoft (which has already invested $1 billion into OpenAI) announced that it is launching a new Bing with OpenAI’s GPT-4 model (ChatGPT was built using GPT-3 which only has data until 2021). This will provide a ChatGPT-like experience within the search engine. In addition, Microsoft is planning to include AI features in their Edge browser as well.

This kicks off the AI wars between Microsoft and Google. As we pray that this will not degenerate into an ending like The Matrix, let’s check out the three biggest impacts AI-powered search engines will have on us Digital Marketers.

Search Marketing To Take Larger Proportion of Ad Marketing Spend

With access to the user’s search history, location and behaviour, AI-powered search engines will deliver highly personalised search results and advertisements that can be used to create more effective targeted marketing campaigns. This would lead to higher conversion rates and better ROAS (return on ad spend) for digital marketers. As a result, it would be expected that our investment in Search Marketing will only grow in importance.

Furthermore, with Microsoft’s Bing returning with a vengeance like a Jedi, we will no longer be able to get away with just Google SEM (search engine marketing). Time to broaden our Search Marketing repertoire and pick up Bing advertising.

Increased Efficiency Leading to a New Breed of Digital Marketers

Imagining having JARVIS (Ironman) or Griot (Black Panther) helping you with your manual tasks. It is highly possible that AI-powered search engines may automate many of our manual tasks such as keyword research and bid management. This will free up precious time and resources and thus allow us to focus on more strategic initiatives.

This means that we as Digital Marketers will need to develop and focus on other skillsets besides technical expertise such as strategic thinking, creativity and problem-solving.

Unique Content is Required to Stand Out

As AI-powered search engines focus more on conversational results instead of the traditional search query results, search engines will likely drive fewer clicks to your content.

In a world where AI may synthesise large amounts of data to produce a summarised answer, sites with similar content will be buried away. Therefore to stand out, an even greater importance will be placed on creating unique content. A tip here would be to add your own unique view on top of what AI services like ChatGPT provides.

In conclusion, AI-powered search engines will transform digital marketing by improving the ROI through enhanced targeting, creating a new breed of digital marketers, and forcing content creation to be more unique.

What other ways do you think AI-powered search engines will affect us as Digital Marketers?

The Duopoly of Facebook and Google

In Economics, we learn that in an Oligopoly, the consumer suffers because of potential collusion leading to higher prices and lack of consumer choice.

Google and Facebook Rigged the Ad Market

With a combined share of ~53%, the digital ad space is currently being dominated by Google and Facebook. In such a duopoly (a special form of Oligopoly), collusion is always a possibility, and it turned out to be true when Google colluded with Facebook to favour its own exchange.

Oligopoly Trend is Not Waning

This problem of Oligopoly is definitely not going away anytime soon. It is exacerbated by further consolidation in the ad supply space (Applovin acquiring Mopub & ironSource acquiring Tapjoy) and Facebook/Google withdrawing further behind their walled gardens.

What can be Done?

Brands / Advertisers definitely have their work cut out for them. To stand out and succeed in time to come, I believe advertisers would need to focus on the following:

Grow their product’s core value: Costs of digital advertising will be on the rise, and thus it will be important to provide real value to customers/users.
Increase their users’ lifetime value: With the rising costs, revenues need to go up by either extending your customers’ lifetime or improving the ways you are monetising.
Diversify to market disrupters like TikTok: We need to start diversifying to other digital marketing channels so that we do not continue to feed to their duopoly. It is probably easier said than done, but this is why we need more disruptors like TikTok.

The digital ad space will certainly start to feel tighter but do not mistake that for it being smaller.

We just need to grow bigger and better with it!

Netflix: King of All Entertainment

I am really excited that the direction in which Netflix is taking – marrying video and gaming entertainment. Through this acquisition of video game developer – Night School Studio, Netflix has shown where they are heading next.

Videos and Games are Complementary

Videos and games have always been intricately intertwined. That is why there are so many video games adapted from movies. Think Spiderman, Lord the Rings, Star Wars and etc. Likewise, there have been movies adapted from games such as Warcraft (horribly done, nonetheless).

Imagine completing the Squid Game series and immediately jumping off to play a video game version of the game, or finishing Money Heist and playing a GTA-like game where you are participating in a bank heist.

There are so many possibilities and if executed well, Netflix may really dominate the entertainment space in our lives.

Format Matters

Viewing habits differ when we are viewing long-form or short-form content. Long-form content is typically consumed when we have set aside a good block of time whilst short-form content is consumed on the go.

Personally, I believe the gaming genre needs to match the video format (long vs short form). As such, I also see great potential for short-form video platforms like TikTok including hyper-casual and casual games into their ecosystem.

Entering a new phase

The first collision was when Media Studios acquired comic houses – Disney acquiring Marvel and Warner acquiring DC. Now that the Media Studios have become Video platforms (thus competing with Netflix), they are onto acquiring gaming studios.

At the end of the day, all these companies are just competing for our entertainment hours, and there is limit to it. So it is not surprising that consolidations and collisions will keep happening. I believe that before long there will a company or few selected companies that will fully dominate our entertainment activities of video, gaming, reading and even sports (think metaverses).

Videos are Entertaining

Amazon is definitely gearing up in its competition with Netflix & Disney in the video entertainment arena by acquiring MGM Studios for $8.45B. However, I think what is most interesting is the differences in their business approach.

Video entertainment is engaging

While Netflix and Disney’s core businesses are video entertainment, Amazon’s core business is e-commerce. As such, video entertainment forms part of Amazon’s customer engagement strategy.

Gaming competes with Video as engaging entertainment

Even more interesting, is that this usage of entertainment as customer engagement is gradually transiting to other areas as well, especially instant games.

I believe in the near future, more apps (especially e-commerce & super apps) will want to engage their users with games and prizes on their platforms.

Truly an exciting space to watch!

Never Forget Your Mother-Tongue

Growing up in Singapore, we get the privilege of mastering both the English language and our mother-tongue, which in my case is Mandarin Chinese. By a stroke of luck, it turned out that these are probably the two most important languages in this age.

In most of my professional years, English was all I needed. Even when I needed to speak to colleagues in Mandarin-speaking countries, I managed to get by. Even then, Mandarin is not used for professional terms but just for pleasantries and water-cooler talk.

Recently, as the world changes, I realised that it is getting increasingly harder to avoid using Mandarin in the professional setting. To be honest, I am not used to this and started to think back on how I have neglected my mother-tongue.

‘Higher Chinese’ Education is Less Chinese Education

Through the Singapore education, I managed to get into an SAP (Special Assistance Plan) High school. As part of the SAP programme, it is mandatory to take Higher-Chinese as a subject. At the high school level, there are two levels of the Chinese language – Chinese and Higher Chinese. The Higher Chinese subject is considered the more difficult of the two.

So taking Higher Chinese, one would naturally assume that I should be well-versed in mandarin. While I will say that I do have a certain level of proficiency in Mandarin, I must be honest in that the way I learnt the language was for the examination.

And there is a simple reason. Because I wanted the option to not take Chinese as a language in Junior College. The deal is if we do well enough in ‘Higher Chinese’ in High school, we do not need the subject in Junior College. The incentive of no longer needing to learn Mandarin spurred me on to work hard and do well enough in the O-levels to get the exemption.

Not Needing Mandarin

So without having to take Chinese in Junior College, there is no real need for me to brush up on my Mandarin since I was seventeen. My experience with the Chinese language was relegated to only listening and speaking.

Over time, I am pretty sure that my proficiency in Mandarin has definitely stagnated or even declined. While I may often joke about my wife not being able to speak Mandarin properly, I think I am not pretty far behind. I am still very much able to follow day to day conversations but throw me into a business setting where I need to present in Mandarin using business terms and I will be a mess.

Never Too Late

Hopefully, it is never too late. I do have a decent foundation in Mandarin. I believe with enough hard work and determination, I am pretty sure I will be able to overcome my current language deficiency.

What I need is a plan. A plan on how I can regain my proficiency in Mandarin and be able to use it confidently for work. Here is what I am thinking:

Expansion of Vocabulary – I need to start building a list of business terms that I will need to know in Mandarin.
Experience in Reading Reports – I am going to force myself to read the Mandarin-version of proposals and documents from my Chinese business associates.
Listening to News in Mandarin – To get myself used to listen to business conversations in Mandarin, I will need to start listening to the news in Mandarin.

It is never too late.

Will China Win?

I first went to China about 20 years ago. Memories of how China looked like during school trips are now fuzzy at best. Two things stuck in my mind. I remember the prices in China to be so cheap that as a fifteen-year-old I felt like I could eat like a king. The other thing was that China was the land of the counterfeits. Thinking back now, I remember purchasing several cheap DVDs which I am sure were fake and illegal now.

Now if I can return to China, I am sure I will witness a very different China. Heading to Shanghai or Beijing now, you will find a modern bustling city with a melting pot of East and West cultures. I reckon everyone should visit at least once just to see the ‘Paris of the East’.

China Won Already?

This week I managed to catch Kishore Mahbubani’s interview on New Economic Thinking where he spoke about the geopolitical showdown between the United States and China. In the interview, he frequently made references to his book, “Has China Won” as he described how the showdown is inevitable and predicted that it is only a matter of time before China overtakes.

In the interview, Kishore mentioned several facts and opinions but the ones which stuck out for me were:

In the last 30 years, the average income of the bottom 50% in the United States has been in decline. In comparison, the average income of China’s bottom 50% has been steadily rising.
China’s aim is not to spread her communist ideologies with the world but to focus on reclaiming its reputation and standing in the world.
It is no longer a competition of Democracy versus Communist, but Plutocracy versus Meritocracy.

How Did China Get Here?

So the question is really how did China get here? The conventional train of thought is that with only a single party, there will be no check and balance on the ruling party, and thus not capable of self-correction.

However, as presented so articulately by Eric Li in this Ted Talk presentation, the opposite is true. China is able to self-correct because it is adaptable and meritocratic.

Eric described that in the last 60 years, the policies and reforms by China were so wide because they aim to correct the previous dysfunctions. Examples cited were the Cultural Revolution in the 70s versus Deng Xiao Ping’s Market Reform in the 80s.

He went on to describe how difficult it is to get into the 25-man Politburo, China’s highest ruling body. And only 5 out of them came from privileged backgrounds. As such, the Chinese Communist Party may be the only party but it is a meritocratic one.

Therefore, it is no wonder that with a meritocratic government where the very best minds are introducing self-correcting policies, China is able to surge forward to become the second-highest country in economical power.

What Does It Mean for Us?

Does this mean China is going to win and the United States will fall like the Soviet Union? I do not think this is true, and certainly hope it does not lead to this.

I do not believe it has to be a zero-sum game in that for China to win, the United States has to lose. I think while it is probably inevitable that China will overtake the United States in economical output, there is still much to catch up on in other areas such as technology and military.

Instead, I would rather hope that the United States adapt to this changing political climate and build a collaborative partnership instead of a provocative one. With the United States in the West and China in the East in strong cooperation, we can imagine a more peaceful world where nations may spend less on their military and more on healthcare, education, climate change, scientific enquiry and etc.

I know I am being naive in this utopia dream. Probably too simplistic in my thinking that this might be resolved through better understanding, more empathy and open communication.

But then again. Why not?

Fearless like a Child

Reconnecting with childhood friends has certainly been one of the silver linings during this lockdown period. During the lockdown period, my secondary school friends revived our Whatsapp group chat.

We knew each other since we were thirteen and there were more than twenty years to catch up on. We caught up on what we were doing now in our lives, and it was interesting to find out where we all ended up. While most of us continue to live in Singapore, some are in the United States, United Kingdom and one is even moving to the UN Space Agency in Vienna!

Tribute for Teachers Day

We reminisced about our times in school. Talked about the teachers we drove crazy and the teachers we still admired today. One of the stories which came up was about us performing a Stomp-like performance for Teachers’ Day which apparently was written by me!

To be honest, my memories of this performance has long been forgotten. Even now the memories are murky at best. From the group chat, I managed to piece together my grand first act.

It was Teachers’ Day, and our class decided to surprise the school by volunteering to perform a piece. With that in mind and inspired by Stomp, I ambitiously wrote a piece and then spent a good time teaching my classmates.

With probably too little time and talent, we ultimately still went on stage in front of the entire school to perform. Despite bombing the performance, we are all to this day proud that we managed to accomplish it.

What Happened to that Fearless Ambition?

What made me think to myself was where was that fearless ambitious self I was back at fifteen?

The ambition to write a song without real professional training. The fearlessness of performing on stage without sufficient practice but knowing that we have given our all.

I am a little disappointed with myself now. My fifteen-year-old self would have laughed at me now. Afraid to take big risks and fear of failure.

But I guess it’s not too late considering I have at least half of my life left to make amends. I need to and will find my young self again. We all need to because it is the dreams of our younger selves that got us to where we are and sometimes we need that reminder to take us forward.

To paraphrase one of my inspirations:

Stay Ambitious, Stay Fearless.

Mission Lockdown: Come Back Stronger

I just got my new haircut yesterday and I am all ready to move into the new phase – the end of Circuit Breaker. Yet somehow this does not really feel like the end. At least for me, the difference in my daily living will be minimal as my household will continue to work from home. Probably the only difference for me is now I can go visit my mother-in-law. But for many of my friends who are now parents, they will probably be much happier as schools will start to open up and take away the stress of managing both children and work at home.

What got me thinking though was how the lockdown situation in Singapore compared to the rest of the world?

mission lockdown come back stronger than before

Singapore Only at 28th?!

So taking the easy way out, I took to Wikipedia and fortunately enough there is a list compiling the start and end dates of lockdown periods per country (updated as of 31st May 2020). And with some quick data manipulation, I managed to come up with a chart of the top 50 countries based on lockdown period lengths.

I am pretty surprised that Singapore is coming in at only 28th and far behind some of our neighbours such as Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. Not sure why, but it certainly does make me appreciate the situation better and just be glad we are not like Peru which has been on lockdown since 16th March with an end date of 30th June – 106 days!

But maybe looking at the number of days in lockdown is not exactly the right way about thinking about this Covid19 pandemic. The question really should be…

What is considered a victory over the Covid19 virus?

In the simplest and most logical sense, that would refer to an eradication of the virus. Considering that smallpox is the only disease to be eradicated in our history, I believe we need a more generous way of defining a win over the Covid19 virus.

In my opinion, a victory should not only be defined by the medical perspective but more from a social perspective. Are we able to live our lives the way we want without being affected by the virus?

Using this as the benchmark, I must say we are quite far away from winning the virus. Our lives have obviously been affected and to be honest, we do not have a clear idea to when everything can return to normal. As long as we have the fear of getting the virus on the back of our heads, there is no doubt that the virus is winning.

Does this mean we should now live in despair and misery?

Our Mission is to Come Back Stronger

As rightly stated in this video by Grey’s Director Commentary, being in lockdown is akin to us boarding a spaceship and leaving planet Earth. While the frontline people in healthcare and essential services continue to battle the Covid19 virus, we are left alone in our homes or ‘spaceships’.

However, this does not mean we sit idly by as we wait for our lives to return to normalcy. When we can return to society, we will most likely face one which is broken and will require us to heal it. To do so, we need to ensure that we do not need fixing and can come back stronger than before.

As such, our mission is to come out of this lockdown better than before.

Suggested in the video, we need to maintain both our physical and our mental healths. To achieve this, I believe there are three things we should pay attention to.

First is the physical since it is the easier or the more straight forward out of the two. Being confined to our homes will limit our usual physical activity. As such, make sure we put in the time and effort to exercise and keep our bodies fit.
Divide your physical space in your homes so that you have a clear area for each major activity – Exercise, Sleep, Entertainment and Work. Previously, you’d always had clear designated places such as the gym, your office, the coffee shops/bars and your house. Maintaining the same segregation will provide the mental support you will need.
Last but not least, its to find the right balance between these four areas. The key thing here is not the number of hours spent in each area but the quality. Make sure that when you are in each area, only do what is designated and soon you would be able to find out the right balance for yourself.

With at least more than a month away, now is the time to fulfil our destiny.