Thanks to Covid19

In a parallel universe where the Covid19 virus did not happen, I should have been partying in Seoul this weekend with my boys. But instead, we were confined to a virtual party where we could only substitute our blown holiday with our alcohol stash. 

Thank You Covid19

In Singapore, we are close to two months into our Circuit Breaker (our version of the Lockdown). The ‘house arrest’ experience has certainly curtailed my life, but at the same time, it has given me much in return. 

‘Death and Rebirth’

No. Death here does not refer to one related to the virus. Thank God! 

What happened was that near the start of the Circuit Breaker, the company which I was working in just announced that it has filed for liquidation, and I just lost my job. 

To be honest, this was a new experience for me and while I pray that I would not have to go through it again, in a weird way I am glad it happened. The best way I can describe it would be to liken it to a break-up, and it turned out to be a life-teaching experience.  

First came the shock and denial. As rightly pointed out in this article by Variety, I tried to point the finger of blame on everyone else but myself. Sure, we can take jabs at the unsustainable business model which requires continuous capital injections, the unwillingness of senior management to commit to a strategy, or the lack of support from the investors. However, at the end of the day, I came to realise that I was part of this company. 

That brought me to the second stage which is self-reflection. Regardless, I have to remember that I was still a part of the company and I deserve part of the blame as well. Going along with poorly conceived plans and not giving a bigger voice to my thoughts, I am as guilty as everyone else.

I need to be braver, more enthusiastic and more decisive.

With these thoughts and a little bit of luck, I enter into the recovery stage. Within my notice period, I managed to find another job in an industry that I had been wanting to join for some time. 

But this time it is going to be different. I know what I have to do. I need to be braver in my words, more enthusiastic in my actions, and more decisive in my thoughts.  

The Golden ‘Variance’

I know, I know. So much hype has been going around on the internet about how staying home is the perfect opportunity to do this and to do that. But for me, what struck home was this article by Scott Galloway

The golden opportunity really lies in the variance we are experiencing now. To me, it is the time variance that Scott so correctly pointed out. Commute time variance. Working from home now means no commute and time saved.

Question is what are you going to do with your commute time saved?

Are you going to blow it all on sleep or on Netflix? Or you can use the one to three hours saved to spend more time with your family, get that daily workout or put in the extra work you wished you had time for. For me, I have decided to allocate that ‘additional’ two hours I have daily to work and exercise. 

I now start my workday earlier and I would take 30 to 45 minutes each morning to plan what I want to achieve today at work. With a combination of a Kanban board, my calendar and the Forest app, I have found that my workdays are now a lot more productive. It feels like I enter every day with a game plan on hand. 

As for my exercise, I have always complained that I do not have the time for it. But I guess there is no excuse now. I decided to embark on the T25 journey. As Shaun T rightfully states in the video: It is just 25 minutes a day but I need you to focus! 

I will focus. Focus on making sure that I make full use of this golden variance.

The Last Dance 

Released timely during the lockdown, The Last Dance is a docuseries showcasing Michael Jordan, the Chicago Bulls, and converging on the last season of their second three-peat. 

I grew up watching Jordan and he is probably my first sports hero. Watching this docuseries has certainly sparked renewed admiration for the man, and his winning mentality was certainly a much-needed inspiration during these times. 

My favourite quote from him will always be: 

“I’ve missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. 26 times I’ve been trusted to take the game-winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed” Michael Jordan

Never give up.

Attribution: The World Is Not Fair

We want a fair and just world. A world where all our marketing partners are attributed equally. And, we would like to think that is the case. Sorry to burst your fairy tale bubble, but we are certainly far from the truth.

World is unfair

In 2020, Facebook and Google will continue to rule over Digital Ad Spend land. Estimated by eMarketer, the duo will seize 61% of the US Digital Ad Spend. I guess this should not come as a surprise to many. With copious user data coupled with the smartest AI algorithms, is there any doubt as to why Facebook and Google are leading the race?

Yes, there is no doubt. But it is not only because of their superior technology and user base. Facebook and Google do not play fair.

Facebook and Google US Digital Ad Spend Share in 2020
Source: eMarketer

What is Attribution in Digital Marketing?

Alright, let me set the context straight-up first. What the heck is Attribution? To put it simply, Attribution refers to credit allocation to marketing interactions. In relation, there are two key concepts on Attribution that will be relevant here.

First up is the concept of which marketing interaction gets the credit. On the fundamental level, there are five basic methods (as illustrated below). Relevant to what we are discussing later, we can just refer to the “Last Interaction” model where the last marketing interaction gets all the credit.

Marketing Attribution Models

The second concept to note is the type of marketing interaction. Broadly speaking, there are only two – Click-through attribution and View-Through attribution. Don’t worry all this mumbo-jumbo is simpler than it sounds. It is the players like Facebook and Google which complicate it.

Click-through simply means the credit is given when the user actually clicks on an ad, whilst View-through means the credit is given when the user views the ad.

Sounds simple enough?

When a View Becomes a Click

What is a view? What is a click?

It may sound simple but when you really think about it, it is going to be borderline philosophical. Take some time and think through the following scenarios:

  • The ad image has loaded only the top 25% but the user has already scrolled past it.
  • The web page is loaded and there is a potential banner ad to be shown below-the-fold.
  • A video ad auto-plays but the user immediately pauses it.

Would any of you consider the above as a view? Here’s the kicker. The answer is yes and no. Yes according to Facebook but not according to Google. According to Appsflyer, a major Mobile Measurement Partner, Facebook considers an ad unit as a view as long as the ad unit is rendered. Even if it is not necessarily in view. And for videos, all it takes is for 1 pixel of which to appear on the screen. In contrast, Google requires at least 50% of the ad unit to be visible. The majority of the rest have pretty stringent rules too. They require 100% of interstitials and banners to be loaded before a view is counted.

Source: Appsflyer

At this moment you might think it is mighty of Google to be implementing such strict rules on itself. Don’t be rejoicing too soon. When we move on to a click, which I thought should have way less ambiguity, Google performed magic. For video ads that have been watched for 10 seconds or more, Google will transform that view to a click!

Source: Appsflyer

Impact on my Attribution Game

So what have all these funky definitions got to do with not playing fair?

Because Facebook and Google have risen to such importance to advertisers, all 3rd party partners such as Appsflyer who wish to continue partnering with them have to play by their rules, or risk being left out in the cold. In an ideal world, attribution rules should be the same for all players, and in my opinion, should be decided by an independent 3rd party.

When Facebook is allowed to consider unseen ads to be counted as a view, and Google is allowed to ‘magically’ convert a view to a click, we advertisers will constantly be playing in a world where we can never truly understand what channel works best with our customers.