Blog - Mervyn Chua

AI-Powered Search Engines: 3 Ways It Will Change Digital Marketing

I got to be honest. Writing this article, I had help from ChatGPT (an AI language model). While not to the extent of it (he, she or they?) writing the article for me, but good enough proof that the future of work is indeed changing.

First, a quick premier to set the context.

What is ChatGPT and why is it causing an AI browser war?

ChatGPT is an AI language model developed by OpenAI. Since its web interface version was released to the public in November 2022, it has taken the world by storm due to its capability to generate human-like text and its ability to perform a wide range of tasks such as answering questions, summarising text, and producing creative writing.

Most recently, Google fired the first salvo when they announced their own experimental AI chat service, Bard, which will be accessible in the upcoming weeks. A couple of days later, Microsoft (which has already invested $1 billion into OpenAI) announced that it is launching a new Bing with OpenAI’s GPT-4 model (ChatGPT was built using GPT-3 which only has data until 2021). This will provide a ChatGPT-like experience within the search engine. In addition, Microsoft is planning to include AI features in their Edge browser as well.

This kicks off the AI wars between Microsoft and Google. As we pray that this will not degenerate into an ending like The Matrix, let’s check out the three biggest impacts AI-powered search engines will have on us Digital Marketers.

Search Marketing To Take Larger Proportion of Ad Marketing Spend

With access to the user’s search history, location and behaviour, AI-powered search engines will deliver highly personalised search results and advertisements that can be used to create more effective targeted marketing campaigns. This would lead to higher conversion rates and better ROAS (return on ad spend) for digital marketers. As a result, it would be expected that our investment in Search Marketing will only grow in importance.

Furthermore, with Microsoft’s Bing returning with a vengeance like a Jedi, we will no longer be able to get away with just Google SEM (search engine marketing). Time to broaden our Search Marketing repertoire and pick up Bing advertising.

Increased Efficiency Leading to a New Breed of Digital Marketers

Imagining having JARVIS (Ironman) or Griot (Black Panther) helping you with your manual tasks. It is highly possible that AI-powered search engines may automate many of our manual tasks such as keyword research and bid management. This will free up precious time and resources and thus allow us to focus on more strategic initiatives.

This means that we as Digital Marketers will need to develop and focus on other skillsets besides technical expertise such as strategic thinking, creativity and problem-solving.

Unique Content is Required to Stand Out

As AI-powered search engines focus more on conversational results instead of the traditional search query results, search engines will likely drive fewer clicks to your content.

In a world where AI may synthesise large amounts of data to produce a summarised answer, sites with similar content will be buried away. Therefore to stand out, an even greater importance will be placed on creating unique content. A tip here would be to add your own unique view on top of what AI services like ChatGPT provides.

In conclusion, AI-powered search engines will transform digital marketing by improving the ROI through enhanced targeting, creating a new breed of digital marketers, and forcing content creation to be more unique.

What other ways do you think AI-powered search engines will affect us as Digital Marketers?

The Duopoly of Facebook and Google

In Economics, we learn that in an Oligopoly, the consumer suffers because of potential collusion leading to higher prices and lack of consumer choice.

Google and Facebook Rigged the Ad Market

With a combined share of ~53%, the digital ad space is currently being dominated by Google and Facebook. In such a duopoly (a special form of Oligopoly), collusion is always a possibility, and it turned out to be true when Google colluded with Facebook to favour its own exchange.

Oligopoly Trend is Not Waning

This problem of Oligopoly is definitely not going away anytime soon. It is exacerbated by further consolidation in the ad supply space (Applovin acquiring Mopub & ironSource acquiring Tapjoy) and Facebook/Google withdrawing further behind their walled gardens.

What can be Done?

Brands / Advertisers definitely have their work cut out for them. To stand out and succeed in time to come, I believe advertisers would need to focus on the following:

Grow their product’s core value: Costs of digital advertising will be on the rise, and thus it will be important to provide real value to customers/users.
Increase their users’ lifetime value: With the rising costs, revenues need to go up by either extending your customers’ lifetime or improving the ways you are monetising.
Diversify to market disrupters like TikTok: We need to start diversifying to other digital marketing channels so that we do not continue to feed to their duopoly. It is probably easier said than done, but this is why we need more disruptors like TikTok.

The digital ad space will certainly start to feel tighter but do not mistake that for it being smaller.

We just need to grow bigger and better with it!

Netflix: King of All Entertainment

I am really excited that the direction in which Netflix is taking – marrying video and gaming entertainment. Through this acquisition of video game developer – Night School Studio, Netflix has shown where they are heading next.

Videos and Games are Complementary

Videos and games have always been intricately intertwined. That is why there are so many video games adapted from movies. Think Spiderman, Lord the Rings, Star Wars and etc. Likewise, there have been movies adapted from games such as Warcraft (horribly done, nonetheless).

Imagine completing the Squid Game series and immediately jumping off to play a video game version of the game, or finishing Money Heist and playing a GTA-like game where you are participating in a bank heist.

There are so many possibilities and if executed well, Netflix may really dominate the entertainment space in our lives.

Format Matters

Viewing habits differ when we are viewing long-form or short-form content. Long-form content is typically consumed when we have set aside a good block of time whilst short-form content is consumed on the go.

Personally, I believe the gaming genre needs to match the video format (long vs short form). As such, I also see great potential for short-form video platforms like TikTok including hyper-casual and casual games into their ecosystem.

Entering a new phase

The first collision was when Media Studios acquired comic houses – Disney acquiring Marvel and Warner acquiring DC. Now that the Media Studios have become Video platforms (thus competing with Netflix), they are onto acquiring gaming studios.

At the end of the day, all these companies are just competing for our entertainment hours, and there is limit to it. So it is not surprising that consolidations and collisions will keep happening. I believe that before long there will a company or few selected companies that will fully dominate our entertainment activities of video, gaming, reading and even sports (think metaverses).

Videos are Entertaining

Amazon is definitely gearing up in its competition with Netflix & Disney in the video entertainment arena by acquiring MGM Studios for $8.45B. However, I think what is most interesting is the differences in their business approach.

Video entertainment is engaging

While Netflix and Disney’s core businesses are video entertainment, Amazon’s core business is e-commerce. As such, video entertainment forms part of Amazon’s customer engagement strategy.

Gaming competes with Video as engaging entertainment

Even more interesting, is that this usage of entertainment as customer engagement is gradually transiting to other areas as well, especially instant games.

I believe in the near future, more apps (especially e-commerce & super apps) will want to engage their users with games and prizes on their platforms.

Truly an exciting space to watch!

Never Forget Your Mother-Tongue

Growing up in Singapore, we get the privilege of mastering both the English language and our mother-tongue, which in my case is Mandarin Chinese. By a stroke of luck, it turned out that these are probably the two most important languages in this age.

In most of my professional years, English was all I needed. Even when I needed to speak to colleagues in Mandarin-speaking countries, I managed to get by. Even then, Mandarin is not used for professional terms but just for pleasantries and water-cooler talk.

Recently, as the world changes, I realised that it is getting increasingly harder to avoid using Mandarin in the professional setting. To be honest, I am not used to this and started to think back on how I have neglected my mother-tongue.

‘Higher Chinese’ Education is Less Chinese Education

Through the Singapore education, I managed to get into an SAP (Special Assistance Plan) High school. As part of the SAP programme, it is mandatory to take Higher-Chinese as a subject. At the high school level, there are two levels of the Chinese language – Chinese and Higher Chinese. The Higher Chinese subject is considered the more difficult of the two.

So taking Higher Chinese, one would naturally assume that I should be well-versed in mandarin. While I will say that I do have a certain level of proficiency in Mandarin, I must be honest in that the way I learnt the language was for the examination.

And there is a simple reason. Because I wanted the option to not take Chinese as a language in Junior College. The deal is if we do well enough in ‘Higher Chinese’ in High school, we do not need the subject in Junior College. The incentive of no longer needing to learn Mandarin spurred me on to work hard and do well enough in the O-levels to get the exemption.

Not Needing Mandarin

So without having to take Chinese in Junior College, there is no real need for me to brush up on my Mandarin since I was seventeen. My experience with the Chinese language was relegated to only listening and speaking.

Over time, I am pretty sure that my proficiency in Mandarin has definitely stagnated or even declined. While I may often joke about my wife not being able to speak Mandarin properly, I think I am not pretty far behind. I am still very much able to follow day to day conversations but throw me into a business setting where I need to present in Mandarin using business terms and I will be a mess.

Never Too Late

Hopefully, it is never too late. I do have a decent foundation in Mandarin. I believe with enough hard work and determination, I am pretty sure I will be able to overcome my current language deficiency.

What I need is a plan. A plan on how I can regain my proficiency in Mandarin and be able to use it confidently for work. Here is what I am thinking:

Expansion of Vocabulary – I need to start building a list of business terms that I will need to know in Mandarin.
Experience in Reading Reports – I am going to force myself to read the Mandarin-version of proposals and documents from my Chinese business associates.
Listening to News in Mandarin – To get myself used to listen to business conversations in Mandarin, I will need to start listening to the news in Mandarin.

It is never too late.

Will China Win?

I first went to China about 20 years ago. Memories of how China looked like during school trips are now fuzzy at best. Two things stuck in my mind. I remember the prices in China to be so cheap that as a fifteen-year-old I felt like I could eat like a king. The other thing was that China was the land of the counterfeits. Thinking back now, I remember purchasing several cheap DVDs which I am sure were fake and illegal now.

Now if I can return to China, I am sure I will witness a very different China. Heading to Shanghai or Beijing now, you will find a modern bustling city with a melting pot of East and West cultures. I reckon everyone should visit at least once just to see the ‘Paris of the East’.

China Won Already?

This week I managed to catch Kishore Mahbubani’s interview on New Economic Thinking where he spoke about the geopolitical showdown between the United States and China. In the interview, he frequently made references to his book, “Has China Won” as he described how the showdown is inevitable and predicted that it is only a matter of time before China overtakes.

In the interview, Kishore mentioned several facts and opinions but the ones which stuck out for me were:

In the last 30 years, the average income of the bottom 50% in the United States has been in decline. In comparison, the average income of China’s bottom 50% has been steadily rising.
China’s aim is not to spread her communist ideologies with the world but to focus on reclaiming its reputation and standing in the world.
It is no longer a competition of Democracy versus Communist, but Plutocracy versus Meritocracy.

How Did China Get Here?

So the question is really how did China get here? The conventional train of thought is that with only a single party, there will be no check and balance on the ruling party, and thus not capable of self-correction.

However, as presented so articulately by Eric Li in this Ted Talk presentation, the opposite is true. China is able to self-correct because it is adaptable and meritocratic.

Eric described that in the last 60 years, the policies and reforms by China were so wide because they aim to correct the previous dysfunctions. Examples cited were the Cultural Revolution in the 70s versus Deng Xiao Ping’s Market Reform in the 80s.

He went on to describe how difficult it is to get into the 25-man Politburo, China’s highest ruling body. And only 5 out of them came from privileged backgrounds. As such, the Chinese Communist Party may be the only party but it is a meritocratic one.

Therefore, it is no wonder that with a meritocratic government where the very best minds are introducing self-correcting policies, China is able to surge forward to become the second-highest country in economical power.

What Does It Mean for Us?

Does this mean China is going to win and the United States will fall like the Soviet Union? I do not think this is true, and certainly hope it does not lead to this.

I do not believe it has to be a zero-sum game in that for China to win, the United States has to lose. I think while it is probably inevitable that China will overtake the United States in economical output, there is still much to catch up on in other areas such as technology and military.

Instead, I would rather hope that the United States adapt to this changing political climate and build a collaborative partnership instead of a provocative one. With the United States in the West and China in the East in strong cooperation, we can imagine a more peaceful world where nations may spend less on their military and more on healthcare, education, climate change, scientific enquiry and etc.

I know I am being naive in this utopia dream. Probably too simplistic in my thinking that this might be resolved through better understanding, more empathy and open communication.

But then again. Why not?

Fearless like a Child

Reconnecting with childhood friends has certainly been one of the silver linings during this lockdown period. During the lockdown period, my secondary school friends revived our Whatsapp group chat.

We knew each other since we were thirteen and there were more than twenty years to catch up on. We caught up on what we were doing now in our lives, and it was interesting to find out where we all ended up. While most of us continue to live in Singapore, some are in the United States, United Kingdom and one is even moving to the UN Space Agency in Vienna!

Tribute for Teachers Day

We reminisced about our times in school. Talked about the teachers we drove crazy and the teachers we still admired today. One of the stories which came up was about us performing a Stomp-like performance for Teachers’ Day which apparently was written by me!

To be honest, my memories of this performance has long been forgotten. Even now the memories are murky at best. From the group chat, I managed to piece together my grand first act.

It was Teachers’ Day, and our class decided to surprise the school by volunteering to perform a piece. With that in mind and inspired by Stomp, I ambitiously wrote a piece and then spent a good time teaching my classmates.

With probably too little time and talent, we ultimately still went on stage in front of the entire school to perform. Despite bombing the performance, we are all to this day proud that we managed to accomplish it.

What Happened to that Fearless Ambition?

What made me think to myself was where was that fearless ambitious self I was back at fifteen?

The ambition to write a song without real professional training. The fearlessness of performing on stage without sufficient practice but knowing that we have given our all.

I am a little disappointed with myself now. My fifteen-year-old self would have laughed at me now. Afraid to take big risks and fear of failure.

But I guess it’s not too late considering I have at least half of my life left to make amends. I need to and will find my young self again. We all need to because it is the dreams of our younger selves that got us to where we are and sometimes we need that reminder to take us forward.

To paraphrase one of my inspirations:

Stay Ambitious, Stay Fearless.

Mission Lockdown: Come Back Stronger

I just got my new haircut yesterday and I am all ready to move into the new phase – the end of Circuit Breaker. Yet somehow this does not really feel like the end. At least for me, the difference in my daily living will be minimal as my household will continue to work from home. Probably the only difference for me is now I can go visit my mother-in-law. But for many of my friends who are now parents, they will probably be much happier as schools will start to open up and take away the stress of managing both children and work at home.

What got me thinking though was how the lockdown situation in Singapore compared to the rest of the world?

mission lockdown come back stronger than before

Singapore Only at 28th?!

So taking the easy way out, I took to Wikipedia and fortunately enough there is a list compiling the start and end dates of lockdown periods per country (updated as of 31st May 2020). And with some quick data manipulation, I managed to come up with a chart of the top 50 countries based on lockdown period lengths.

I am pretty surprised that Singapore is coming in at only 28th and far behind some of our neighbours such as Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. Not sure why, but it certainly does make me appreciate the situation better and just be glad we are not like Peru which has been on lockdown since 16th March with an end date of 30th June – 106 days!

But maybe looking at the number of days in lockdown is not exactly the right way about thinking about this Covid19 pandemic. The question really should be…

What is considered a victory over the Covid19 virus?

In the simplest and most logical sense, that would refer to an eradication of the virus. Considering that smallpox is the only disease to be eradicated in our history, I believe we need a more generous way of defining a win over the Covid19 virus.

In my opinion, a victory should not only be defined by the medical perspective but more from a social perspective. Are we able to live our lives the way we want without being affected by the virus?

Using this as the benchmark, I must say we are quite far away from winning the virus. Our lives have obviously been affected and to be honest, we do not have a clear idea to when everything can return to normal. As long as we have the fear of getting the virus on the back of our heads, there is no doubt that the virus is winning.

Does this mean we should now live in despair and misery?

Our Mission is to Come Back Stronger

As rightly stated in this video by Grey’s Director Commentary, being in lockdown is akin to us boarding a spaceship and leaving planet Earth. While the frontline people in healthcare and essential services continue to battle the Covid19 virus, we are left alone in our homes or ‘spaceships’.

However, this does not mean we sit idly by as we wait for our lives to return to normalcy. When we can return to society, we will most likely face one which is broken and will require us to heal it. To do so, we need to ensure that we do not need fixing and can come back stronger than before.

As such, our mission is to come out of this lockdown better than before.

Suggested in the video, we need to maintain both our physical and our mental healths. To achieve this, I believe there are three things we should pay attention to.

First is the physical since it is the easier or the more straight forward out of the two. Being confined to our homes will limit our usual physical activity. As such, make sure we put in the time and effort to exercise and keep our bodies fit.
Divide your physical space in your homes so that you have a clear area for each major activity – Exercise, Sleep, Entertainment and Work. Previously, you’d always had clear designated places such as the gym, your office, the coffee shops/bars and your house. Maintaining the same segregation will provide the mental support you will need.
Last but not least, its to find the right balance between these four areas. The key thing here is not the number of hours spent in each area but the quality. Make sure that when you are in each area, only do what is designated and soon you would be able to find out the right balance for yourself.

With at least more than a month away, now is the time to fulfil our destiny.

Thanks to Covid19

In a parallel universe where the Covid19 virus did not happen, I should have been partying in Seoul this weekend with my boys. But instead, we were confined to a virtual party where we could only substitute our blown holiday with our alcohol stash.

In Singapore, we are close to two months into our Circuit Breaker (our version of the Lockdown). The ‘house arrest’ experience has certainly curtailed my life, but at the same time, it has given me much in return.

‘Death and Rebirth’

No. Death here does not refer to one related to the virus. Thank God!

What happened was that near the start of the Circuit Breaker, the company which I was working in just announced that it has filed for liquidation, and I just lost my job.

To be honest, this was a new experience for me and while I pray that I would not have to go through it again, in a weird way I am glad it happened. The best way I can describe it would be to liken it to a break-up, and it turned out to be a life-teaching experience.

First came the shock and denial. As rightly pointed out in this article by Variety, I tried to point the finger of blame on everyone else but myself. Sure, we can take jabs at the unsustainable business model which requires continuous capital injections, the unwillingness of senior management to commit to a strategy, or the lack of support from the investors. However, at the end of the day, I came to realise that I was part of this company.

That brought me to the second stage which is self-reflection. Regardless, I have to remember that I was still a part of the company and I deserve part of the blame as well. Going along with poorly conceived plans and not giving a bigger voice to my thoughts, I am as guilty as everyone else.

I need to be braver, more enthusiastic and more decisive.

With these thoughts and a little bit of luck, I enter into the recovery stage. Within my notice period, I managed to find another job in an industry that I had been wanting to join for some time.

But this time it is going to be different. I know what I have to do. I need to be braver in my words, more enthusiastic in my actions, and more decisive in my thoughts.

The Golden ‘Variance’

I know, I know. So much hype has been going around on the internet about how staying home is the perfect opportunity to do this and to do that. But for me, what struck home was this article by Scott Galloway.

The golden opportunity really lies in the variance we are experiencing now. To me, it is the time variance that Scott so correctly pointed out. Commute time variance. Working from home now means no commute and time saved.

Question is what are you going to do with your commute time saved?

Are you going to blow it all on sleep or on Netflix? Or you can use the one to three hours saved to spend more time with your family, get that daily workout or put in the extra work you wished you had time for. For me, I have decided to allocate that ‘additional’ two hours I have daily to work and exercise.

I now start my workday earlier and I would take 30 to 45 minutes each morning to plan what I want to achieve today at work. With a combination of a Kanban board, my calendar and the Forest app, I have found that my workdays are now a lot more productive. It feels like I enter every day with a game plan on hand.

As for my exercise, I have always complained that I do not have the time for it. But I guess there is no excuse now. I decided to embark on the T25 journey. As Shaun T rightfully states in the video: It is just 25 minutes a day but I need you to focus!

I will focus. Focus on making sure that I make full use of this golden variance.

The Last Dance

Released timely during the lockdown, The Last Dance is a docuseries showcasing Michael Jordan, the Chicago Bulls, and converging on the last season of their second three-peat.

I grew up watching Jordan and he is probably my first sports hero. Watching this docuseries has certainly sparked renewed admiration for the man, and his winning mentality was certainly a much-needed inspiration during these times.

My favourite quote from him will always be:

“I’ve missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. 26 times I’ve been trusted to take the game-winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed” – Michael Jordan.

Never give up.

Attribution: The World Is Not Fair

We want a fair and just world. A world where all our marketing partners are attributed equally. And, we would like to think that is the case. Sorry to burst your fairy tale bubble, but we are certainly far from the truth.

In 2020, Facebook and Google will continue to rule over Digital Ad Spend land. Estimated by eMarketer, the duo will seize 61% of the US Digital Ad Spend. I guess this should not come as a surprise to many. With copious user data coupled with the smartest AI algorithms, is there any doubt as to why Facebook and Google are leading the race?

Yes, there is no doubt. But it is not only because of their superior technology and user base. Facebook and Google do not play fair.

Facebook and Google US Digital Ad Spend Share in 2020 — Source: eMarketer

What is Attribution in Digital Marketing?

Alright, let me set the context straight-up first. What the heck is Attribution? To put it simply, Attribution refers to credit allocation to marketing interactions. In relation, there are two key concepts on Attribution that will be relevant here.

First up is the concept of which marketing interaction gets the credit. On the fundamental level, there are five basic methods (as illustrated below). Relevant to what we are discussing later, we can just refer to the “Last Interaction” model where the last marketing interaction gets all the credit.

The second concept to note is the type of marketing interaction. Broadly speaking, there are only two – Click-through attribution and View-Through attribution. Don’t worry all this mumbo-jumbo is simpler than it sounds. It is the players like Facebook and Google which complicate it.

Click-through simply means the credit is given when the user actually clicks on an ad, whilst View-through means the credit is given when the user views the ad.

Sounds simple enough?

When a View Becomes a Click

What is a view? What is a click?

It may sound simple but when you really think about it, it is going to be borderline philosophical. Take some time and think through the following scenarios:

The ad image has loaded only the top 25% but the user has already scrolled past it.
The web page is loaded and there is a potential banner ad to be shown below-the-fold.
A video ad auto-plays but the user immediately pauses it.

Would any of you consider the above as a view? Here’s the kicker. The answer is yes and no. Yes according to Facebook but not according to Google. According to Appsflyer, a major Mobile Measurement Partner, Facebook considers an ad unit as a view as long as the ad unit is rendered. Even if it is not necessarily in view. And for videos, all it takes is for 1 pixel of which to appear on the screen. In contrast, Google requires at least 50% of the ad unit to be visible. The majority of the rest have pretty stringent rules too. They require 100% of interstitials and banners to be loaded before a view is counted.

At this moment you might think it is mighty of Google to be implementing such strict rules on itself. Don’t be rejoicing too soon. When we move on to a click, which I thought should have way less ambiguity, Google performed magic. For video ads that have been watched for 10 seconds or more, Google will transform that view to a click!

Impact on my Attribution Game

So what have all these funky definitions got to do with not playing fair?

Because Facebook and Google have risen to such importance to advertisers, all 3rd party partners such as Appsflyer who wish to continue partnering with them have to play by their rules, or risk being left out in the cold. In an ideal world, attribution rules should be the same for all players, and in my opinion, should be decided by an independent 3rd party.

When Facebook is allowed to consider unseen ads to be counted as a view, and Google is allowed to ‘magically’ convert a view to a click, we advertisers will constantly be playing in a world where we can never truly understand what channel works best with our customers.