I first went to China about 20 years ago. Memories of how China looked like during school trips are now fuzzy at best. Two things stuck in my mind. I remember the prices in China to be so cheap that as a fifteen-year-old I felt like I could eat like a king. The other thing was that China was the land of the counterfeits. Thinking back now, I remember purchasing several cheap DVDs which I am sure were fake and illegal now.
Now if I can return to China, I am sure I will witness a very different China. Heading to Shanghai or Beijing now, you will find a modern bustling city with a melting pot of East and West cultures. I reckon everyone should visit at least once just to see the ‘Paris of the East’.
China Won Already?
This week I managed to catch Kishore Mahbubani’s interview on New Economic Thinking where he spoke about the geopolitical showdown between the United States and China. In the interview, he frequently made references to his book, “Has China Won” as he described how the showdown is inevitable and predicted that it is only a matter of time before China overtakes.
In the interview, Kishore mentioned several facts and opinions but the ones which stuck out for me were:
- In the last 30 years, the average income of the bottom 50% in the United States has been in decline. In comparison, the average income of China’s bottom 50% has been steadily rising.
- China’s aim is not to spread her communist ideologies with the world but to focus on reclaiming its reputation and standing in the world.
- It is no longer a competition of Democracy versus Communist, but Plutocracy versus Meritocracy.
How Did China Get Here?
So the question is really how did China get here? The conventional train of thought is that with only a single party, there will be no check and balance on the ruling party, and thus not capable of self-correction.
However, as presented so articulately by Eric Li in this Ted Talk presentation, the opposite is true. China is able to self-correct because it is adaptable and meritocratic.
Eric described that in the last 60 years, the policies and reforms by China were so wide because they aim to correct the previous dysfunctions. Examples cited were the Cultural Revolution in the 70s versus Deng Xiao Ping’s Market Reform in the 80s.
He went on to describe how difficult it is to get into the 25-man Politburo, China’s highest ruling body. And only 5 out of them came from privileged backgrounds. As such, the Chinese Communist Party may be the only party but it is a meritocratic one.
Therefore, it is no wonder that with a meritocratic government where the very best minds are introducing self-correcting policies, China is able to surge forward to become the second-highest country in economical power.
What Does It Mean for Us?
Does this mean China is going to win and the United States will fall like the Soviet Union? I do not think this is true, and certainly hope it does not lead to this.
I do not believe it has to be a zero-sum game in that for China to win, the United States has to lose. I think while it is probably inevitable that China will overtake the United States in economical output, there is still much to catch up on in other areas such as technology and military.
Instead, I would rather hope that the United States adapt to this changing political climate and build a collaborative partnership instead of a provocative one. With the United States in the West and China in the East in strong cooperation, we can imagine a more peaceful world where nations may spend less on their military and more on healthcare, education, climate change, scientific enquiry and etc.
I know I am being naive in this utopia dream. Probably too simplistic in my thinking that this might be resolved through better understanding, more empathy and open communication.
But then again. Why not?